Dhaka is juggling rationing, early shop closures, and hybrid schooling to manage the nation's energy use amid the Middle East crisis

"My daughter is sleeping in the ICU of a hospital in Mohakhali, Dhaka and I have been in the queue at the Trust filling station since 1:30 AM. It is now a quarter to three... If I cannot get fuel, I will leave the bike on the road and just walk away. I do not have the strength left in my body to push this bike all the way to the hospital."

A Bangladeshi journalist posted this on social media - one more voice in the flood of similar posts over the past few weeks as the energy crisis triggered by the Iran war has swept across the nation of 177 million people. The post was later updated to say that the man finally received 5 liters of fuel at 6:50 AM.

Social media is now full of images of long lines at gas pumps across Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, and the situation is reportedly even more acute in other parts of the South Asian nation hit by severe energy crisis triggered by the conflict in the Middle East.

Thousands of fishermen across Barishal, the country's southernmost division, have been passing idle days and suffering financial losses as most fishing trawlers remain tied up at the docks amid the ongoing fuel shortage. More than 1,000 seagoing trawlers are stranded in Alipur and Mohipur in Barishal, leaving over 100,000 fishermen and workers out of work.

Pritam Das, the owner of two trawlers that have been docked at Mohipur river port since Eid-ul-Fitr, a major religious festival in the Muslim-majority nation, said each vessel needs around 14 barrels of fuel per trip, but they have not been able to collect any fuel from dealers. The crisis has also significantly disrupted the supply of fish in local markets.

Although a fuel crisis is visible at gas pumps across the country, including in the capital, Dhaka, amid the Iran war, the government maintains that there is no fuel shortage.

While early March shortages were aggravated by the Eid holiday banking shutdown, which disrupted supply chains and delayed payments and deliveries, fuel distribution remains irregular even after the holiday: Stocks are limited, sales are capped, lines are long, and pressure on filling stations continues as demand still exceeds supply in Bangladesh.

New government, mounting challenge

Since the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) assumed power in Bangladesh last February, it has been grappling with a mounting fuel crisis that continues to pose a serious challenge for the new government. 

Despite assurances and policy efforts, supply disruptions, panic buying, and market irregularities have made the situation difficult to control, highlighting the government's struggle to stabilize the energy sector and restore public confidence. 

In response to the ongoing fuel challenges, the new government has introduced a series of measures aimed at stabilizing supply while minimizing economic disruption.

The authorities have decided that shopping malls are to remain open until 7:00 PM - as a number of power plants in Bangladesh run on fuel. At the same time, officials have assured the public that the country is working to build sufficient fuel reserves, with plans to maintain a buffer stock for up to three months to ensure supply stability and meet rising demand, particularly during the peak agricultural season. 

Alongside these steps, the government is also considering introducing a hybrid (online-offline) education system in metropolitan areas to reduce traffic congestion and save fuel amid the current energy situation. 

"If we can reduce traffic on the roads and introduce a rationing system for fuel, it will help conserve fuel. That is why we are thinking of bringing schools in metropolitan cities - where traffic pressure is high - under an online-offline system," Education Minister ANM Ehsanul Hoque Milon said.

Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood Tuku said this week that the country has adequate supplies of fuel, while stating that he would continue the nationwide drive against illegal fuel hoarders.

"The country so far has no fuel shortage and has enough stock of all sorts of fuel including petrol, octane and diesel while a geopolitical instability is prevailing in the Middle East," he stated.

Zahed Ur Rahman, an adviser to the prime minister, admitted that there is a slight shortage in fuel supplies, though he reiterated that the situation remains under control as the government works to ease pressure. "Operations have been intensified to prevent illegal hoarding and smuggling of fuel," he said.

Local experts maintain that the ongoing fuel strain is unlikely to ease anytime soon, as global supply uncertainty and mounting domestic demand continue to put pressure on the country's energy supply chain.

With no clear end to the Middle East conflict - despite the announced ceasefire and ongoing talks in Islamabad - concerns are growing over shipment delays, particularly for April, when only a limited number of planned consignments have been confirmed so far. In the coming weeks, supply is likely to remain manageable if imports arrive on schedule and demand does not spike further.

Supply vs stock: The real constraint

As of April 7, the total stock of octane and gasoline stood at 10,500 tons and 16,000 tones respectively, enough to meet demand for 9-11 days, according to the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC). For April, around 110,000 tons of diesel imports have been confirmed and another 60,000 tons is in the pipeline, according to BPC data. In addition, existing depot stock stands at around 130,000 tons.

This suggests a total available supply of around 300,000 tons, or 86% of typical monthly demand.

In Bangladesh, the government has begun rationing fuel to avoid a shortage, as the country meets 95% of its oil and 30% of its gas requirements through imports.

Energy-sector analysts predict that electricity supply in the country could be affected in the coming summer season, as many power plants are likely to remain underutilized due to shortages of gas, coal, and furnace oil. Around 40% of overall capacity is expected to remain idle during peak demand from 7:00 to 9:00 PM. 

Out of the total 12,204 megawatts (MW) of gasfired capacity, the Bangladesh Power Development Board - the stateowned agency responsible for planning and developing the nation's power infrastructure - will be able to use at best about 5,200 MW, leaving nearly 7,000 MW offline.

Gas shortages have already forced five of the country's six fertilizer factories to remain shut since March.

The country will have to rely heavily on coalfired power plants and furnace oil for electricity generation, as it has installed only 1,059 MW of renewable capacity - just 3.7% of total demand - with 757 MW from solar, 230 MW from hydro, and 62 MW from wind.

Hunting for fuel worldwide

As geopolitical tensions escalate, the government of Bangladesh is moving to diversify fuel imports as traditional shipping routes face disruption. Dhaka has requested a sanctions waiver from the US so that the country can purchase refined fuel from Russia without repercussions. At the same time, officials are negotiating with a range of countries across Asia, Africa, and beyond to diversify fuel sources.

According to the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, Dhaka wrote to Washington in March, requesting permission to import up to 6,00,000 tonnes of refined fuel from Russia, or alternatively, to obtain a waiver for at least two months. Officials did not provide details on the procurement mechanism, including whether shipments would come directly from Russia or a third country.

Dhaka has also been trying to secure additional supplies from regional partners. Officials said India earlier committed to supplying around 60,000 tons of diesel from January to June under an existing arrangement. So far, Bangladesh has received three consignments of 5,000 tons each through the India-Bangladesh pipeline and another shipment of 7,000 tons via the sea route, bringing the total diesel imports from India to roughly 22,000 tons.

Meanwhile, two additional shipments - each estimated at around 6,000 tons - are expected from Indonesia. As part of exploring new sources to diversify imports, the government has been reaching out to Singapore, Malaysia, Nigeria, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Angola, Australia, and the US for potential fuel and gas supplies. "In several cases, we have received positive responses, as two LNG shipments have been confirmed from Angola and Australia," the ministry spokesperson said.

The authorities have also reached out to Iran to explore possible shipment arrangements, though logistical and security complications remain.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has yet to recover in any meaningful way despite the US-Iran ceasefire. Iran previously listed Bangladesh as a 'friendly nation', and indicated that Bangladeshi vessels may be allowed safe passage through the strait. In reality, however, vessel movements still hinge on how the talks in Islamabad proceed.

Officials said they have examined several alternatives, but many have proven economically unviable, noting that "all procurement decisions must ultimately be economically viable." The search for new suppliers has also become harder, as some traditional exporters are adding surcharges on top of already surging oil prices. For now, the government can secure supplies for the immediate future, the ministry spokesperson said, urging people not to panic, but officials cautioned that it is too early to predict supply conditions for May and June, even though plans are in place to build a three-month fuel reserve.